If we take China and India's dominance as a given

Let's do some silly projection. Imagineering the future.

Let us assume that China and India will indeed dominate the 21st century. Not too far-fetched.

Except the caveats are that US don't engage in a war against Iran which has many political and trade links with China. China needs oil, Arab states "controlled" by US (by way as suggested by the movie Syriana), Iran feeds China fuel needed for economic expansion. Iran, whose population as doubled since 1979 needs lots of consumer goods. China, the current workshop of the world fills the Iranian homes with durables and expendables alike.

The other caveat is that in an extremely strained situation in the Taiwan and China straits, US does not throw it's weight in. Taiwan, unwittingly, has got more to lose now because in a war down just the economic front, she will suffer tremendously.

These are simplistic caveats. There might be more, Tibet, Nepal, relations with Russia, Japan etc etc.

India on the other hand seems to be on a surer ride. Especially with the recent visit by George dubya Bush and the nuclear alliance formed. India has a more "enabled" population because of language and a more welcomed progression. Maybe not viewed similarly by the Pakistanis.


Let's say both countries, China and India got a smooth ride, miraculously. What happens next?

The remaining "under-developed" regions seemed to be just South America, Eastern Europe (Balkan states like Albania, Slovenia and newly minted EU countries like Czech Republic, Estonia, Slovakia), Africa and Southeast Asia.

Middle East by then should be either drying up (pessimistic view that carbon based energy source cannot sustain forever) or worrying silly (optimisitic view that alternative energy sources is cheap and replicable everywhere). Dubai and UAE might absorb more "Emirates", reclaim more islands into other weird shapes besides the current palm and world shaped ones. Dubai is moving away from oil-based industries. Tourism, shipping, airports....it's like Singapore in the 1970s. And that may be the real reason why Congress is against DP World from taking over P&O.

Which of the above regions look poised for a economic surge after the "Pacific Century" is history? South America views US with lots of suspicion. Especially countries south of Mexico (haha). Unless they pick themselves up, the progress would be slow. Balkan states and the Eastern Bloc looks good. But it would have to be carried by an unsure Russian economy (which relies to some degree on oil) and a mature Western European economy. Africa? It's alot more diverse than we think it is. And the current disparity in development as well as the potential for economic growth, in my myopic and unqualified opinion, does not augur well for growth surges.

What remains?

Southeast Asia.

And the most important market then? Indonesia.

Why? Because if (and it is a very questionable "if" here) the world's 4th largest population can be blessed with stable leadership that maintains their "Unity in Diversity" ethos and focus on education, public health, infrastructure and sustainable economic development, the economic growth can spread from north of the equator to this archipelago.

What are the strategic plans for Singapore? Continue to wedge ourselves within the obvious growers - China and India. Become a bridge between these two engines of growth, ride on the wave. Where else can you find large groups of Chinese nationals living relatively harmoniously with Indian nationals. Well, maybe in Malaysia too. Build on our relationships with Japan. Overcome historic wounds before Hong Kong becomes the in-between for China-Japan trade. Foster greater relationships with neighbours, in particular Malaysia for obvious reasons. Continue to be the single oasis of perceived sanity of the Americans so that we can leverage on their military prowess and ensure continued participation and interest in this region. Maintain an autonomous global point of view to gain respect from China and Southeast Asia to show that we are not lackeys of the US. Lastly, to ensure continued growth for this tiny island nation, apply first-mover advantage in Indonesia. I am keeping my fingers crossed on this one. Indoneisa, being the country with the most populous muslims should rise in prominence within my lifetime if it is well-managed.

I'm just being silly of course.