I'll rush out a short blog - North Korea Nuclear Test
So it's official. (well....kind of. based on North Korean official reports and seismic records)
As at 1:36am GMT or 9:36am Singapore Time, North Korea supposedly conducted a nuclear test somewhere near Hwaderi. I'm sure it'll be a site for the filming of Nuclear Winter Sonata. Perhaps become a hot (radioactively) holiday location for Singaporeans looking for an alternative to Namiseom Island, where Winter Sonata was filmed.
Just a few observations.
Japanese Reaction Important
Shinzo Abe, the newly minted Japanese Prime Minister, will be scrutinised closely. His reactions will be evaluated and this is important because it sets the stage with which Japanese foreign policies (at least against North Korea) will be viewed.
Countries around the world issued statements like "provocative actions", "brazen act" and other adjectives. Singapore is "deeply concerned" by "such a rash and dangerously provocative act".
No Precedence No Solution
This is not a repeat of the India vs Pakistan Nuclear Test in 1998. Nor the French test in Mururoa atoll in 1996. The previous test did not contravene the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty simply because France is a recognised nuclear-weapons state and India as well as Pakistan are not members of the treaty.
Resistance Is Futile
Military action is unlikely (even under the United Nations Security Council Chapter 7 - ACTION WITH RESPECT TO THREATS TO THE PEACE, BREACHES OF THE PEACE, AND ACTS OF AGGRESSION) because.... nobody can afford it. Nobody really wants it. Not South Korea. Not Japan. Not China. US? I'll come to that later.
Economic sanctions? The combined effort of South Korea and Japan will have limited effect should any declared economic sanctions be enforced. Economic sanctions imposed by China will have a bigger effect. >50% of North Korea resources come from China. And that's just declared by China. China needs North Korea to be a "rogue" state. I'll come to that later.
China (as with most other countries around the world) will urge North Korea to return to the 6 nation talks. China will definitely veto against any military action against North Korea. South Korea and Japan will never fire the first salvo. There will not be any unilateral military action against North Korea. US will not be able to sustain any prolonged military action in North Korea. South Korea will be reluctant to host the campaign. The political climate here is just different from the Middle East.
Yet Another Chinese Puzzle
So why is US so concern? Well, China can use North Korea as the reason for increasing her military might. But can the Republican beast take a knock after the the mess that is Iraq? And history forbids the Republican war horse to gallop into the peninsula. Remember Korea 1950-53? My guess is....this is a Chinese puzzle. Similar to the Iranian Chinese puzzle. A variation. Taiwan and the trouble across the Formosa Strait may acquiescence within this decade. No better way than to have state sponsored engines for weaponry growth. And there's hardly a more assured method than to provide the engines and maintain them yourself.
Simplistic View
So when North Korea does have nuclear weapons, China will get more nuclear weapons. US will get more worried about her global dominance. Simple relationship. There are all directly related.
As at 1:36am GMT or 9:36am Singapore Time, North Korea supposedly conducted a nuclear test somewhere near Hwaderi. I'm sure it'll be a site for the filming of Nuclear Winter Sonata. Perhaps become a hot (radioactively) holiday location for Singaporeans looking for an alternative to Namiseom Island, where Winter Sonata was filmed.
Just a few observations.
Japanese Reaction Important
Shinzo Abe, the newly minted Japanese Prime Minister, will be scrutinised closely. His reactions will be evaluated and this is important because it sets the stage with which Japanese foreign policies (at least against North Korea) will be viewed.
Countries around the world issued statements like "provocative actions", "brazen act" and other adjectives. Singapore is "deeply concerned" by "such a rash and dangerously provocative act".
No Precedence No Solution
This is not a repeat of the India vs Pakistan Nuclear Test in 1998. Nor the French test in Mururoa atoll in 1996. The previous test did not contravene the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty simply because France is a recognised nuclear-weapons state and India as well as Pakistan are not members of the treaty.
Resistance Is Futile
Military action is unlikely (even under the United Nations Security Council Chapter 7 - ACTION WITH RESPECT TO THREATS TO THE PEACE, BREACHES OF THE PEACE, AND ACTS OF AGGRESSION) because.... nobody can afford it. Nobody really wants it. Not South Korea. Not Japan. Not China. US? I'll come to that later.
Economic sanctions? The combined effort of South Korea and Japan will have limited effect should any declared economic sanctions be enforced. Economic sanctions imposed by China will have a bigger effect. >50% of North Korea resources come from China. And that's just declared by China. China needs North Korea to be a "rogue" state. I'll come to that later.
China (as with most other countries around the world) will urge North Korea to return to the 6 nation talks. China will definitely veto against any military action against North Korea. South Korea and Japan will never fire the first salvo. There will not be any unilateral military action against North Korea. US will not be able to sustain any prolonged military action in North Korea. South Korea will be reluctant to host the campaign. The political climate here is just different from the Middle East.
Yet Another Chinese Puzzle
So why is US so concern? Well, China can use North Korea as the reason for increasing her military might. But can the Republican beast take a knock after the the mess that is Iraq? And history forbids the Republican war horse to gallop into the peninsula. Remember Korea 1950-53? My guess is....this is a Chinese puzzle. Similar to the Iranian Chinese puzzle. A variation. Taiwan and the trouble across the Formosa Strait may acquiescence within this decade. No better way than to have state sponsored engines for weaponry growth. And there's hardly a more assured method than to provide the engines and maintain them yourself.
Simplistic View
So when North Korea does have nuclear weapons, China will get more nuclear weapons. US will get more worried about her global dominance. Simple relationship. There are all directly related.
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